Subject choice trends in post-16 education in England

Student’s post-16 education choices matter. Over the past two decades, those choices have been changing.

This independent report by the National Foundation for Educational Research, commissioned by the British Academy, extends the research done by the SHAPE Observatory monitoring the health of SHAPE disciplines. It examines the data on how students have chosen to combine different subjects over last two decades and how student characteristics relate to subject choice. It also explores how wider contextual changes have affected the subjects that students choose to study in order to build a better understanding of the drivers of post-16 education choices.

The analysis presented in this report draws student-level data from the National Pupil Database (NPD) and Individualised Learner Record (ILR) between 2003/04 and 2021/22 and uses both descriptive and econometric approaches. More information about our methodological approach can be found in the technical appendix. Data tables can be explored in the accompanying data dashboards.

Key findings

• There has been a fall in take-up across all major subject groups – Arts, Humanities, Social Science and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) – at AS/A-level since 2015/16. Our analysis shows this is probably due to the decoupling of AS- and A-level qualifications from 2015/16. This has meant that students are now taking many fewer qualifications compared to previously.

• Students are increasingly narrowing the range of subjects they are taking at AS/A-level, especially since decoupling occurred. Increasing proportions of students are electing to only study subjects that sit within the same major subject group (e.g. all STEM subjects or all Social Science subjects). This is particularly notable given that post-16 students in England study a narrower range of subjects, on average, than their international counterparts.

• Humanities and Arts subjects take-up has declined considerably over the last two decades, compared to STEM and Social Science subjects. Controlling for students’ characteristics, the likelihood of a student studying a Humanities and Arts subject is around 21 and 15 percentage points lower in 2021/22 compared to 2003/04 respectively.

• While almost all providers are offering AS/A-levels in each major subject group, at the individual subject level, choices for students have diminished since 2007/08 with providers generally reducing the range of subjects being offered. Almost all Arts AS/A-level subjects have seen a dramatic decline in availability across providers. Most Humanities subjects have experienced a decline in availability between 2007/08 and 2021/22. Subjects such as French, German and Religious Studies are offered by significantly fewer providers than they were in 2007/08.

• The analysis also finds a young person’s background, environment and gender play key roles in influencing their subject choices.

The technical appendix provides more information about our methodological approach.

Subject Choice Trends Dashboard 1

Subject Choice Trends Dashboard 2