The democratisation and diversification of war: reflections on the effects of technological change and normative retrenchment on the character of contemporary war

This paper explores two developments whose dynamic interaction is driving a democratisation and diversification of war within the international system.

The first of these is a process of rapid technological change affecting the way wars are fought, evidence for which can be found in the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine since 2022, and the increasingly widespread use of drone technology by states and non-state actors in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Americas over the same period. The second is a process of normative retrenchment in the attitudes and habits of self-restraint governing the use of force in international relations.

The paper advances three broad conclusions. First, the democratisation and diversification of war have ushered in an era where the recourse to force and the threat of its use by states and non-state actors are becoming more pronounced. Second, there is little evidence to suggest that the impact of technological change and innovation is making war more decisive or ‘game-changing’ in terms of outcomes. If anything, in parts of the world, war is becoming less instrumental in settling disputes, more prolonged, and more intractable. Third, the democratisation and diversification of war are contributing to a further blurring of the distinction between ‘war’ and ‘peace’, to the point where the very character of war itself may be changing.