This working group will analyse evolving patterns of violence and (in)security, both within and between states, and consider the concrete challenges these pose for international order in a context of growing great power competition, influential regional actors and non-state forces. Participants will explore ongoing and potential great conflicts and experiences of violence and insecurity, assessing existing efforts to prevent and mitigate these dynamics, and consider scenarios and options for policy pathways to better manage, and respond to violence and insecurity.
Comprising leading international experts from diverse fields and perspectives, the working group will take a granular, bottom-up approach, using specific instances and case studies as an analytical lens to shed light on broader regional, systemic and global challenges, and the geopolitical and accountability implications related to violence and security. By linking “bottom-up” and “top-down” perspectives, this approach will permit participants to leverage case studies to gain broader systemic insights, to engage in historical and comparative analysis, and to explore the interplay of bottom-up and systemic forces on conflict situations. Two categories of questions will guide this inquiry.
The changing nature of violence and insecurity
Through the lens of granular level case studies, how does the global incidence and nature of contemporary violence and insecurity differ from the past?
What is the role of geopolitical competition, including among global and regional powers (including the United States, China, Russia, India, Iran, and others), as well as alliances (such as NATO) and regional organisations (such as the EU or AU) in exacerbating or mitigating conflict dynamics?
Are perceptions of the utility of war, as well as of the logic of deterrence, changing?
What are the main drivers of violence and insecurity today at the global, regional, national, and subnational/urban levels?
What is the role of violence in contributing to political order and disorder, at various levels?
How are violence and insecurity perceived and experienced at local levels, including by women and minorities?
How have the respective roles of global and regional powers, national governments, transnational movements, non-state groups (eg, civil society, terrorists, insurgents, and criminals), and the private sector changed over time?
What do contemporary conflicts tell us about regional and historical spillovers from violence?
How are advances in technology and weapons systems, from AI to drones, democratising access to violence and altering the nature of warfare?
How effective are international law and multilateral institutions in reducing the incidence of aggression and impunity in conflict situations?
What is the health of international regimes for the control of weapons of mass destruction?
How is the era of mis- and dis-information contributing to global insecurity
What are the linkages between insecurity and violence, on the one hand, and broader shocks (such as climate change, environmental degradation and financial crises), on the other?
Preventing and mitigating violence and insecurity
Through the lens of granular level case studies, what can be done to temper the main drivers of contemporary violence and insecurity, both within and between countries?
What can be done to build more resilient societies, including in combating violent criminal and other actors?
What light do case studies shed on the requirements for successful prevention of conflict and of mass atrocities and human rights violations war termination, and sustainable peacebuilding?
What is the value of the existing multilateral architecture and regional organisations in reducing the incidence of violence and affecting the conduct of warfare?
What is the role of alliances and collective defence arrangements in contributing to (dis)order and (in)security?
How can regional organisations (eg, the AU, EU, or ASEAN) better keep the peace?
How might informal networks, including non-state actors, be better leveraged to channel conflict dynamics into non-violent directions?
What are the operational and political challenges facing peace-making in contexts of civil war and protracted violence, and how can differing political economies of conflict be tackled effectively in reducing violence and insecurity?
By considering local contexts, what can a lens on local conflict dynamics and power structures tell us about the practice and shaping of international (dis)order, as well as how geopolitical competition and outside forces affect specific contexts?
What can be done to bolster the effectiveness of the United Nations, including the Security Council, in advancing international peace and security?
Is it possible to re-galvanise the international legal foundations of collective security and justice, including in countering interstate aggression, asserting state responsibility for the commission of international wrongs and holding perpetrators accountable for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and gender-based violence in war?
What can be done to end the world’s forgotten and frozen conflicts, as well as to strengthen global humanitarian action?
What steps are needed to reduce risks to global security posed by novel technologies, including AI, cyber-weapons, and synthetic biology?
What are the most important priorities for strengthening arms control (including conventional arms) and non-proliferation regimes for nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons?