The ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic leaves the UK 'woefully underprepared’ for future crises, says new British Academy report

New British Academy research has found that the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic still influence some of the biggest issues facing the UK today – including persistent geographical and health inequalities, severe pressures on the justice system, weakened and fractured communities, and low levels of trust in government.

The report warns that ongoing recovery from the pandemic is a critical factor in building resilience against future threats. It also states that the loss of social and cultural infrastructures - from pubs and music venues to libraries and youth centres - is a major concern, as these spaces form the heart of communities and play a vital role in strengthening preparedness and resilience.

SHAPE the Future: Resilience, recovery and renewal revisits the long-term societal impacts of the pandemic identified in the original 2021 Covid Decade reports. It examines how the pandemic’s impact on the economy, employment, health, education, and communities has improved or worsened over the past six years and sets out lessons for governments to better prepare for and respond to future emergencies, from future pandemics to natural disasters to failures of critical infrastructure.

Four lessons for preparation for, response to, and recovery 
from major societal threats:

1. Enhancing the UK’s readiness for major threats is a continuous process that requires equipping and empowering all parts of society to improve their preparedness: including through the creation of national and sector specific preparedness strategies that promote and support localised flexibility.
   
2. Rethinking the provision of expert advice for emergency planning, preparedness and response: governments should move beyond the framing of simply “following the science”, instead making clear to the public that decision-making during crises is complex and influenced by a range of factors, and should be informed by a broader range of expertise including from the humanities and social sciences.
   
3. Government crisis messaging can be more effective when delivered through community-embedded approaches and trusted local actors: relying solely on centralised government messaging may be less effective especially as trust in institutions declines and misinformation continues to be easily spread online.
   
4. Crises do not have a singular framing or clear ‘end’ point – ignoring this can make recovery harder for the most impacted individuals and communities: Covid-19 may have begun as a public health threat, but it caused cascading economic, social and political disruption, the impacts of which people are still feeling. Seeking a singular, unifying narrative or clear ‘end’ to a crisis may risk masking the disproportionate impacts still being felt by particularly vulnerable or marginalised communities.

The report comes as the UK faces an increasingly volatile world, with threats ranging from climate change, extreme weather and drought to geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East. It warns that governments risk exacerbating existing problems and creating new costly ones if they fail to learn from the pandemic or engage with the people and communities who are at risk of being hit hardest by crises.

Professor Dominic Abrams, Vice-President for Public Policy at the British Academy, said:

“Five years on, the pandemic may be less prominent in the public’s consciousness, but its impact is still felt across the UK. Key issues that people care about today, like rising unemployment, enduring health and social care challenges, high rates of school absences, and regional or local inequalities, have undoubtedly been shaped by the pandemic and the way we responded to it.

“Today’s complex world poses a huge range of threats from climate change to geopolitical tensions and vulnerable infrastructures, which is why we must take lessons learned from Covid-19 to strengthen our preparedness for emergencies of all kinds. Getting this right means looking beyond the immediate response to any crisis and thinking about its wider and longer-term ramifications.

“This requires government at all levels to make better use of evidence and expertise from the humanities and social sciences, using their insight into behaviour, communities, inequalities, and trust – not just to recover well from the last pandemic but also to prepare for and beyond major disruptions and challenges that inevitably lie ahead.”

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